Inderes reported October sales in line with our estimate in rounded numbers. The growth was 6%, which is slightly below our estimate. Given that the month is driven by recurring business we estimate that the current organic growth rate of recurring revenue is close to 5%, which can be considered a decent performance in a tough market environment. No need for material estimate changes.

Inderes announced a strategically important deal with its Videosync platform. A European online and hybrid event player with annually >1,000 events has chosen Videosync as its platform. Although the financial impact to Inderes group sales may not be significant, we note that the revenue should come with a high margin and hence could move the needle for EBITA estimates. We also flag that European reference could open new doors for the scalable software business.

Inderes posted a solid Q3 report, with sales up 11.5% in a tough market. Our read is that while headwinds remain for the underlying market, growth was delivered by cross-selling and gradual steps in Sweden. Positively, the company sees improving signs in the IPO funnel. We share the company’s view and think the IPO market could reopen; we lift our 2024-26 estimates and raise our fair value range to EUR 21-23 (EUR 19-21).

Inderes delivered Q3 sales and EBITA slightly above our estimates, thanks to better than expected event business in September. While this might owe to timing of certain projects we flag that also Q3 recurring revenue came in slightly above estimate and the number of commissioned research contracts keeps increasing despite the market headwind. In fact, the company now sees the market headwind easing, referring to improving IPO activity. All in all, on first glance is positive.

Ahead of Inderes’ Q3 report, we make small downward estimate revisions due to softer August sales data than we expected. Despite market headwinds (companies leaving the exchange), the number of new research coverage initiations has been good. We see no material changes to the case, in which higher multiples would require further evidence of conquering the Swedish market. Our fair value range remains unchanged at EUR 19-21.

Inderes' August sales came in slightly below our estimate. While the muted 3% growth was driven by IR software our take is that event business saw monthly volatility being on the downside. For September we expect input 12% growth, which after August seems elevated. However, we note that the timing of CMDs and other events may give the required boost for the next month.