contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyTagList on Company {
  pageUrl
  name
  viewerIsFollowing
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    ...CompanyTagList
    id
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls {
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
      }
      id
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    id
    name
    viewerIsFollowing
    defaultInstrument {
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

alternatePageUrls

imgUrl

description

Analytiker

Rauli Juva

Hennes & Mauritz är en detaljhandelskedja. Utbudet består av kläder, skor och accessoarer. Inom koncernen återfinns även varumärkena COS, Monki, Weekday, Cheap Monday samt Other Stories. Idag driver bolaget även affärsverksamhet inom heminredning under märket H&M Home. Verksamhet innehas inom samtliga globala regioner. Bolaget grundades ursprungligen 1947 och har sitt huvudkontor i Stockholm.

Inderes tror att konsumentefterfrågan under H&M:s fjärde kvartal (september–november) förblev dämpad trots en stark september. Bruttomarginalen försvagades av prisnedgångar, ökade reaaktivitet och högre produktions- och transportkostnader. Företagets effektivitetsprogram hjälper dock till att hålla operativa kostnader under kontroll. H&M stänger sin Monki-kedja, vilket medför engångskostnader för fjärde kvartalet, men i övrigt förblir kostnaderna hanterbara tack vare en måttlig omsättningstillväxt. Förbättringstakten för marginalerna verkar dock avta, och de långsiktiga lönsamhetsmålen framstår som utmanande. Inderes bedömer att aktien fortfarande är relativt rättvist värderad, eftersom tillväxtutsikterna förblir stabila men begränsade.                   Inderes              H&M: Margin improvement expectations cut - Inderes    We believe consumer demand has remained subdued in H&M’s Q4 (Sep-Nov), although the strong September should support growth. We have lowered our margin assumptions for 2025 and beyond.

H&M Q2 was released this morning, key points:  Sales in local currencies were flat, just below our and consensus expectation of +1%, and reported sales declined 3 % also slightly below expectations Gross margin was 51,1%, very much in line with expectations and close to comparison period EBIT was only 3500 SEK, below all estimates. The company however says that winding down costs for Afound -chain and “long-term” marketing investments" totalled 550 MSEK, but even adjusting for that the earnings would have been below consensus, while inline with our estimate Looking forward, H&M expects September sales to be up as much as 11 %, which is clearly positive (we have 4 % for Q4 in total) The “external factors” as well as cost of markdowns are expected to have a negative impact to gross margin in Q4, while marketing costs will also be higher than in Q3 H&M says they estimate this financial year’s EBIT margin to be below their ambition of 10 %, which was well expected already with expectations around 8 % So overall very poor Q3 earnings, but partly due to one-offs and very nice sales pick-up in September, while margin pressure seems to continue in Q4

H&M redovisar resultatet för Q3’24 (juni-augusti) på torsdag. Vi förväntar oss att omsättningstillväxten blir något positiv i lokala valutor, men negativ i rapporterade termer. Vi förväntar oss att EBIT minskar jämfört med föregående år med en i stort sett stabil bruttomarginal och något högre opex med en negativ försäljningstrend som påverkar resultatet. Kommentar inför rapporten:                  Inderes              H&M Q3’24 earnings preview: Weakening y/y development expected - Inderes    H&M will report its Q3’24 (June-August) results on Thursday at 8:00 am CEST. We expect revenue growth to be slightly positive in local currencies, but negative in reported terms. We expect EBIT to decline y/y with a roughly stable gross margin...

Sammanfattning på nuläget i videoformat:

Vi tror att efterfrågan på HM har förblivit trög under Q3, samtidigt som företaget står inför flera motvindar vad gäller bruttomarginalen. Vi förväntar oss att detta kommer att resultera i ett svagare andra halvår än vi tidigare förväntat oss.                   Inderes              H&M: We believe Q3 has been tough - Inderes    We believe H&M’s demand has remained sluggish in Q3, while the company faces several headwinds on the gross margin. We expect these to result in H2 being weaker than we previously expected and have hence lowered our estimates for 2024-25.

H&M Q2 out this morning. Q2 figures were clearly above our estimates with 3 % growth and a sharp increase in gross margin, however, they were well in line with the consensus. For June, company sees a 6 % decline in sales, which is obviously weak, and which the company attributes to tough comparisons and weather effects. Company reiterated its goal to reach 10 % EBIT margin this year, but added that it has become more challenging due to “external factors” ie. input costs, have become more negative in H2 than previously believed. It’s not a surprise that 10 % will not be reached this year as we have been around 8,5 % and consensus around 9 %, but comments regarding the future still look to be on the negative side in our view, even if we need to hike our 2024 estimates due to better than expected Q2. We also note that opex/sales ratio is not coming down much despite full effect of the restructuring efforts, leaving the improvement to be driven only by gross margin. We believe some of the gross margin strenght might be used to lower prices and hence drive sales going forward.

Företaget publicerar sin Q2-rapport på torsdag och här är analytikerns kommentarer relaterade till den.  H&M will report its Q2’24 (March-May) results on Thursday at 8:00 am CET. We expect revenue to be flattish in local currencies, but EBIT to improve clearly, supported by both gross margin improvement and lower opex. The company has said its targeting 10% EBIT margin in 2024, which looks optimistic to us as we expect only 7.9%, while the consensus is at 8.9%.                   Inderes              H&M Q2’24 earnings preview: Positive margin trend set to continue - Inderes    H&M will report its Q2’24 (March-May) results on Thursday at 8:00 am CET. We expect revenue to be flattish in local currencies, but EBIT to improve clearly, supported by both gross margin improvement and lower opex. The company has said its...

H&M’s Q4 sales development was slightly behind our forecast, leading to minor estimate cuts. The share has performed well since our initiation and the multiples have corrected to quite fair levels in our view (P/E 19x for 2024). 

<p>H&amp;M&rsquo;s Q4 sales development was slightly behind our forecast, leading to minor estimate cuts. The share has performed well since our initiation and the multiples have corrected to quite fair levels in our view (P/E 19x for 2024).&nbsp;</p>

	2022	23e	24e
Omsättning	223 553,0	235 958,0	233 764,0
tillväxt-%	12,36 %	5,55 %	−0,93 %
EBIT (adj.)	9 760,0	14 523,1	21 332,7
EBIT-%	4,37 %	6,15 %	9,13 %
EPS (adj.)	3,74	6,06	9,38
Utdelning	6,50	6,50	7,00
Direktavkastning	5,79 %	4,31 %	4,64 %
P/E (just.)	30,00	24,92	16,08
EV/EBITDA	7,92	7,84	7,04

Multiples now at fair levels

H&M

Key Estimate Figures2023-12-18

H&M

Key Estimate Figures2023-12-18

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