contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyTagList on Company {
  pageUrl
  name
  viewerIsFollowing
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    ...CompanyTagList
    id
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  availableLanguages
  pageUrl
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
      }
      id
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    id
    name
    viewerIsFollowing
    defaultInstrument {
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


aspo-situation-eastern-market-significantly-deteriorated

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

availableLanguages

pageUrl

imgUrl

description

Analytiker

Olli Vilppo

Sabbatical

Sauli Vilén

Aspo är verksamt inom transport- och logistikbranschen. Bolaget drivs som ett konglomerat med visionen att vara en aktiv aktör inom förvärv och utveckling av företag, huvudsakligen inom tillväxtmarknaderna i östra Europa. Branscherna där bolaget innehar intressen i inkluderar exempelvis dagligvaruhandeln, industri, samt IT-sektorn. Huvudkontoret ligger i Helsingfors.

Reflektion baserat på det jag läst.  Aspo är för närvarande en intressant investeringsmöjlighet, även om kortsiktiga svagheter, som svaga fraktvolymer och fallande råoljepriser, kan begränsa den organiska intäktsökningen. Företagets strategiska åtgärder och kommande förvärv, som Kebelco, kan dock stödja en stark intäktsökning under de kommande månaderna. Marknadsåterhämtning och efterfrågetillväxt är avgörande för detta företag. På lång sikt förväntas en förbättring på bulkfraktmarknaden, och Aspo har möjlighet att dra nytta av framtida konjunkturer. Företaget investerar i nya fossilfria fartyg, vilket stärker dess ställning inom hållbarhetsdrivna områden. Även om kortsiktiga utmaningar är närvarande, har Aspo betydande uppsidespotential om strategin genomförs framgångsrikt.

Här är ett par frågor, lite klumpigt formulerade, men de väcker ändå funderingar. De dök bara upp i mitt huvud när jag läste Inderes finska forum. Hur bedömer du Aspos skuldsättningsstrategi och dess påverkan på bolagets långsiktiga hållbarhet, särskilt med tanke på ESL kapitalintensiva natur? Hur ser du på hybridlånets roll i Aspos finansieringsstrategi, särskilt när styrelse- och ledningsmedlemmar själva har investerat i det? Är detta enligt dig en rimlig riskhantering eller en form av dold utdelning, som vissa skulle kunna tolka det?

Evlis uppdaterade tankar: Aspo: Earnings are trending up We continue to expect Aspo FY ’25 EBITA to gain by around EUR 15m y/y, more than half of which would be due to Telko as it has acquired some EUR 7.5m of EBIT this year (and added 40% to revenue). ESL shouldn’t find it too hard to gain by around EUR 4-5m in EBITA then as it will have received a few additional green coasters while the market could have improved a little more. Aspo is valued about 7x EV/EBIT on our FY ’25 estimates, which we view a rather low level. We retain our EUR 7.0 TP and BUY rating.

Här kommer Inderes tankar kring Aspo: Aspo Q2’24: Hyvä tulos vaikeassa markkinassa “Lähivuosien tulosennusteemme ovat nousseet selvästi.” “Olemme myös huomioineet ennusteissamme Aspon päivitetyn voitonjakopolitiikan, jonka mukaan yhtiö jakaa vuosittain enintään 50 % nettotuloksesta osinkoina. Tämän myötä kuluvan vuoden osinkoennusteemme laski reilusti.” “Lähdemme Aspon arvonmäärityksessä oletuksesta, että yhtiön normalisoitu yli syklin katsova liikevoittotaso on noin 40 MEUR (hieman noussut), sijoitetun pääoman tuotto uusille investoinneille 10–11 % ja pääoman kustannus (WACC) on 9,0 %. Menetelmien keskiarvona saamme Aspon osakekannan arvoksi noin 6,4 euroa osakkeelta (aik. 6,2e), joka on myös linjassa päivitetyn tavoitehintamme kanssa.”

Här kommer Evlis tankar kring Aspos resultat: Aspo: Q2 figures very close to estimates “Aspo’s Q2 results were mostly as expected as ESL’s profitability topped estimates while Telko fell somewhat short. The EUR 7.4m comparable EBITA thus came in close to estimates.”

Nordeas uppdaterade tankar: Aspo: Strategy execution is the key in the medium term "The new strategy has led to many changes in the group structure and also in reporting. The increased complexity could even reduce visibility and lower the accepted valuation multiples, but the share price has considerable upside potential if the strategy execution is successful. Our current estimates point to a fair value range of EUR 7.3-8.9 per share, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. The company’s aim is to maximise shareholder value by streamlining the balance sheet and optimising investments, and via further acquisitions and divestments. Aspo’s ambition is to increase EBITA by ~130% by 2028 compared to 2024, which is why its current valuation does not look overly challenging if the strategy execution is successful."

Här kommer Nordeas tankar kring Aspo: Aspo: Clean EPS close to consensus in Q2, full year 2024 guidance unchanged “Aspo is concentrating on value creation by several divestments and acquisitions which we believe is a right strategy. However, several changes in the group structure increase the complexity and could reduce visibility.”

Aspo

The Russian attack on Ukraine significantly weakens the company's operating conditions in the Eastern market and we have lowered our forecasts. Currently, making forecasts is exceptionally difficult...

<p>The Russian attack on Ukraine significantly weakens the company's operating conditions in the Eastern market and we have lowered our forecasts. Currently, making forecasts is exceptionally difficult when visibility is very low. Although Asco has excellent evidence of navigating past crises, the current crisis is quite different in scale. Even with forecast decreases, the share price remains favorable, but in the light of the required return that has clearly increased due to the crisis, it’s difficult for us to see any upside in the share, especially as earnings growth turns negative. Therefore, the return/risk ratio has turned neutral as a result of significantly increased risks.</p> 

	2021	22e	23e
Omsättning	586,4	569,1	580,2
tillväxt-%	17,11 %	−2,95 %	1,95 %
EBIT (adj.)	42,4	38,1	40,5
EBIT-%	7,23 %	6,70 %	6,98 %
EPS (adj.)	1,02	0,93	1,02
Utdelning	0,45	0,46	0,47
Direktavkastning	3,96 %	8,91 %	9,11 %
P/E (just.)	11,08	5,57	5,07
EV/EBITDA	8,63	4,72	4,74

Aspo: Situation in the Eastern market significantly deteriorated

Aspo

Key Estimate Figures2022-02-27

Aspo

Key Estimate Figures2022-02-27

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