Ascelia Pharma (One-pager): Progressing according to plan
The company has successfully conducted a rights issue raising gross proceeds of SEK 105m, which strengthens its balance sheet and improves the company’s negotiation power with potential partners. Combined with its TO 1 warrants, to be exercised in April 2025, the company is fully financed until end-2025, excluding potential additional partnership milestones. Since the latest rights issue was announced on 10 June 2024, the share price has retreated 78%, reflecting that the market implicitly assumes there is just over 30% probability of success (PoS) for approval and successful launch of Orviglance in the base case scenario. See page 2-3 for further discussions of the model and results.
There are currently no competitors and given its niche market, addressing only around 4% of patients, the market will likely remain competition-free during the 7-year FDA regulatory exclusivity period, suggesting that profitability will be higher for longer. Also, a partner-based commercialization strategy will reduce the funding requirement and support commercial launch around early 2026.
Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Ascelia Pharma for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Claus Thestrup 3:50 PM 21-10-2024.
Ascelia Pharma
Ascelia Pharma är ett läkemedelsbolag. Bolaget är specialiserat på utveckling av särläkemedel inom onkologi (cancer). Bolaget utvecklar diverse läkemedelskandidater, där störst användning återfinns inom behandling av cancer som drabbat lever och magsäck. Bolaget grundades år 2000 och har huvudkontor i Malmö, Sverige, men är verksamt på en global marknad.
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