contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyTagList on Company {
  pageUrl
  name
  viewerIsFollowing
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    ...CompanyTagList
    id
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls {
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
      }
      id
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    id
    name
    viewerIsFollowing
    defaultInstrument {
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

alternatePageUrls

imgUrl

description

Co. Head of Research

Petri Gostowski

Neste produces transport fuel and renewable fuels. Today, the largest operations and extraction are held in the Nordic market, where the company is active in the entire value chain, from extraction to delivery to port depots. In addition, the opportunity is given for direct sales where customers can pick up fuel at selected stations. The largest market is in the Nordic region, and the company is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

För Neste-aktieägare reflekteras marknadsosäkerheten i bolagets utsikter och strategiska val. Neste uppmanas av analytiker att fokusera på att lösa operativa problem och hantera frågor som bolaget kan påverka, särskilt med tanke på den försvagade balansräkningen och de osäkra marknadsförhållandena. Det rekommenderas specifikt att skjuta upp omvandlingsprocessen vid raffinaderiet i Borgå och överväga partnerskap för kapitalinvesteringar. Efterfrågan på förnybar diesel har ökat i USA, men den nya Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit (PTC), som träder i kraft i början av 2024, förväntas påverka marknadsdynamiken. Enligt PTC:s regler kommer utländsk produktion, som exempelvis bränslen från Nestes anläggning i Singapore, inte att kvalificera sig för skattelättnader. Detta kan minska bolagets försäljningsmarginaler på den amerikanska marknaden och öka konkurrensen om lokala råvaror som majs och soja, vilka gynnas av skattelättnader. Dessutom förväntas investerare vara mer intresserade av Nestes verksamhet inom förnybara bränslen än av utdelningar. Effekterna av nya stödmekanismer följs noggrant, särskilt möjligheten att förlänga Blenders Tax Credit (BTC). Ett fortsatt BTC-stöd skulle vara en viktig positiv faktor för Neste i en situation med pressade marginaler.

Neste sänkte sin försäljningsvolymprognos för förnybara produkter på grund av ett produktionsavbrott i Rotterdam, vilket minskar produktionen och därmed försäljningsvolymerna. Som en följd har kortsiktiga prognoser justerats nedåt för kommande kvartal. Aktiens värdering är relativt låg, förutsatt att lönsamheten för förnybara produkter återgår till en tillfredsställande nivå de närmaste åren. Den förväntade avkastningen är dock förskjuten till senare år, och eftersom det är svårt att förutsäga en förbättring av marknadsutsikterna, tar Inderes ingen stark ställning till aktien trots dess betydande potential på medellång sikt. Nedan finns en länk till den senaste analysen.                    Inderes              Neste: Production challenges are piling up - Inderes    Neste lowered its sales volume guidance for Renewable Products on Friday, as an unexpected production outage at the Rotterdam refinery will reduce production and thus sales volumes. To reflect this, we have lowered our near-term estimates for the...

Neste’s Rotterdam refinery was shut down due to a fire on November 8, 2024. The fire caused no injuries, but production will be halted for weeks. Neste is now slightly lowering its 2024 renewable products sales target, but aims to minimize impacts on customers. Hoping for better times. So much happening all the time.

Here is a recent analysis of Neste, whose share price has plunged significantly. But… is it still… cheap?  Neste’s Q3 report or the first comments from the new CEO offered no surprises. The market outlook for Renewable Products, suffering from oversupply, is challenging also for next year, but with market growth, we expect the current low gross margin to be higher in the medium term. Relative to these forecasts, the stock valuation is rather moderate looking over next year, so we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation. Reflecting our estimate changes, we lower our target price to EUR 17.5 (was EUR 19.0). The Q3 interview with Neste’s new CEO can be viewed here.                   Inderes              Neste: We have to wait for the margin to turn - Inderes    Neste’s Q3 report or the first comments from the new CEO offered no surprises. The market outlook for Renewable Products, suffering from oversupply, is challenging also for next year, but with market growth, we expect the current low gross margin to...

Inderes’ Tomi intervjuade Neste verkställande direktör Heikki Malinen.                   Inderes              Neste Q3'24: Towards better times - Inderes    Time: 2024-10-24 18:05 The past year has been anything but easy for Neste, as margins have been under significant pressure. However, the long-term demand drivers remain strong.                             Topics: 00:00 Introduction  00:25 Heikki Malinen started as the new CEO  01:51 Focus areas as the new CEO  02:59 Key highlights of Q3  04:44 Strong demand drivers for renewable products  06:18 Upcoming changes in the regulatory landscape  07:51 U.S. presidential elections  08:51 Efficiency of production facilities  09:51 Production in Singapore and Martinez  10:31 Market demand for growing volumes

Just wondering.  Neste keeps delivering unpleasant surprises, and apparently, large foreign shareholders have been selling… while small investors have been buying. I’m a bit worried about the company’s future. How does Neste plan to ensure its competitiveness in the renewable products market amid intensifying competition, especially as new players and technologies start competing for the same raw materials and markets? How will Neste’s investments in expanding production capacity for renewable fuels and chemicals affect the company’s long-term profitability and return on capital, considering potential fluctuations in raw material prices and regulatory changes?

Inget nytt, men jag lyfter fram några delvis bekanta nya saker.  Nestes ekonomiska resultat har påverkats av utmanande marknadsförhållanden. Företaget förväntar sig att EBITDA blir betydligt svagare än förra året, men man räknar med att marknadsförhållandena förbättras mot slutet av året. Efter att Neste sänkte sin vägledning förväntas marknaden stärkas och marginalerna förbättras under det sista kvartalet. Utsikterna för 2025 är fortfarande oroande på grund av förändringar i biobränslepolitiken och en långsam SAF-marknad, men företaget fortsätter att höja sitt kursmål. Utsikterna har förbättrats något, men marknadens återhämtning förväntas vara långsam.

Neste

In Neste's Q4 report, the main focus was on the outlook for Renewable Products, as the segment's expected earnings growth has been colored by a number of challenges. For these, the overall picture is now somewhat clearer, but the earnings growth from higher sales volumes seems to be coming in more slowly than expected. We have lowered our forecasts for the current year to reflect this, but over the longer term the changes have been small.

<p>In Neste's Q4 report, the main focus was on the outlook for Renewable Products, as the segment's expected earnings growth has been colored by a number of challenges. For these, the overall picture is now somewhat clearer, but the earnings growth from higher sales volumes seems to be coming in more slowly than expected. We have lowered our forecasts for the current year to reflect this, but over the longer term the changes have been small.</p> 

	2023	24e	25e
Revenue	22,925.9	21,547.2	24,288.0
growth-%	-10.82 %	-6.01 %	12.72 %
EBIT (adj.)	2,591.5	1,695.7	2,225.4
EBIT-% (adj.)	11.30 %	7.87 %	9.16 %
EPS (adj.)	2.88	1.80	2.35
Dividend	1.20	1.25	1.30
Dividend %	3.73 %	10.92 %	11.35 %
P/E (adj.)	11.18	6.35	4.88
EV/EBITDA	10.69	4.19	3.30

Neste: The fog is lifting with small steps

Neste

Key Estimate Figures08/02

Neste

Key Estimate Figures08/02

Stay up to date with our newsletter