Anora Q1 next Tuesday: Recovery from trough likely to continue
Translation: Original comment published in Finnish on 5/3/2024 at 8:19 am EEST.
Anora will report its Q1 results next Tuesday at around 8.30 am EEST. As in the previous quarter, we expect the result to have improved from the weak comparison period. However, the result will still be at a weak level. We expect Anora to repeat its guidance for the full year, i.e. full year adjusted EBITDA in the range of 75-85 MEUR.
Revenue expected to fall slightly
We predict that Anora's Q1 revenue will decrease by 2% year-on-year. The decline in revenue will mainly come from the Industrial segment due to lower selling prices, but we also forecast a further revenue decline in the Wine segment, as the loss of distribution partners experienced last year will still have a negative impact in Q1. The cognac business divested last year also has a slight negative impact, but currencies should not have a material impact on the past quarter. As far as we know, the Finnish port strike did not have a material impact on the company's operations.
Earnings should continue to trend upwards
Anora's results deteriorated in 2022-23 mainly due to the numerous challenges in the Wine segment (exchange rates, loss of partners and weak performance of Globus Wine in Denmark). In Q4'23, results turned around year-on-year and we expect the same trend to continue in Q1. We believe the main driver of this recovery is the improvement in the Wine segment's gross margin, as prices were increased in Sweden and Norway to offset the impact of weaker currencies. The company’s efficiency measures are also supporting the result.
Guidance to remain unchanged
According to Anora's guidance for 2024, the adjusted EBITDA will be in the range of 75-85 MEUR, and we expect the company to reiterate this guidance in its Q1 report. In our forecasts, the earnings improvement will largely come from the recovery of the Wine segment's earnings to the level of 2022 (adjusted EBITDA 24 MEUR vs. 12 MEUR in 2023), although even this is not a good level in our view.
Anora Group
Anora Group är en producent av alkoholhaltiga drycker. Produktportföljen består av vin och sprit som marknadsförs under olika varumärken. Störst verksamhet återfinns i Norden och Baltikum, samt så exporteras bolagets produkter till återförsäljare inom Europa och Nordamerika. Bolaget kom till via en sammanslagning av Altia och Arcus under 2021 och har sitt huvudkontor i Helsingfors.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures07/04
2023 | 24e | 25e | |
---|---|---|---|
Omsättning | 727,6 | 724,0 | 743,6 |
tillväxt-% | 3,55 % | −0,49 % | 2,70 % |
EBIT (adj.) | 35,9 | 53,8 | 59,0 |
EBIT-% | 4,93 % | 7,43 % | 7,93 % |
EPS (adj.) | 0,21 | 0,44 | 0,52 |
Utdelning | 0,22 | 0,25 | 0,30 |
Direktavkastning | 5,05 % | 5,45 % | 6,54 % |
P/E (just.) | 21,20 | 10,46 | 8,74 |
EV/EBITDA | 6,02 | 5,15 | 4,41 |